PVC: Market Confidence Boosted, Demand Gradually Improved

You are here: Home » News » News » Plastic News » PVC: Market Confidence Boosted, Demand Gradually Improved

PVC: Market Confidence Boosted, Demand Gradually Improved

You are here: Home » News » News » Plastic News » PVC: Market Confidence Boosted, Demand Gradually Improved

PVC: Market Confidence Boosted, Demand Gradually Improved

Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-02-24 Origin: Site

In 2021, the market price of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) will first rise and then fall. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the price of calcium carbide method five PVC in the East China market has fluctuated from 7,100 (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to 14,500 yuan in mid-October, reaching a record high. However, since October 12, the PVC market has changed from rising to falling. As of the end of December, the mainstream price fluctuated in the range of 8400-8600 yuan.

According to industry insiders, based on factors such as the continuous increase in supply, the weak domestic demand in the first half of the year and the improvement in the second half of the year, it is expected that the price of PVC in 2022 may first decline and then rise.

Calcium carbide amplitude narrows

In 2021, the "double control" of energy consumption will lead to a contraction in the supply of raw material calcium carbide and a sharp rise in prices, which will bring strong cost support to the PVC market. Later, under the control of the state, the calcium carbide market fell rapidly and was transmitted to the downstream, and the PVC market began to decline. In 2022, the "dual control" of energy consumption will still be the decisive factor affecting the PVC market.

Zhang Zhongying, a calcium carbide analyst at Longzhong Information, said that under the background of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" in 2022, the production capacity of calcium carbide as a high-energy consumption product will inevitably be restricted for a long time. And with the release of various policies and systems, and after adjustments in terms of installation scale, enterprise scale, and supporting conditions, my country's calcium carbide industry will move towards a mature stage. It is expected that from 2022 to 2025, my country's calcium carbide industry will be in a stage of adjustment. Devices below 30,000kVA will withdraw from the market, and production capacity below 100,000 tons/year will gradually withdraw from the market. Increase the ex-factory price of calcium carbide. However, with the strengthening of integrated projects, the stability of construction will also be improved.

"In the short term, the supply of calcium carbide will still be limited to a certain extent, and the support of production costs for PVC is still very strong. However, the calcium carbide market will not experience irrational surges and declines like 2021, and the volatility will be narrower." Zhuochuang Information PVC analyst Li Min said.

Production growth is not high

Domestic PVC supply mainly comes from domestic production and foreign imports. Since the import volume in recent years is not particularly large, the impact of imports may not be considered for the time being. From the perspective of domestic supply, limited by policies and raw materials in 2022, it is expected that the growth of domestic PVC production will depend more on the increase in the operating rate of existing production capacity, which in turn depends on the supply of calcium carbide.

"In 2022, the 'dual control' of energy consumption is likely to be weaker than in 2021, so it is expected that the supply of calcium carbide will be higher than that in 2021, and the operating rate of the PVC industry may increase." Energy and Chemical Analyst, Topix Derivatives Research Institute Yang Xiao said, but it should be noted that in recent years, due to the optimistic expectations of the market for degradable plastics, a large number of new production capacity of degradable plastics have been planned, which will directly drive a downstream segment of calcium carbide, 1,4-butanediol ( BDO) consumption. The new production capacity of acetylenic aldehyde BDO, which is expected to be implemented next year, is roughly 400,000 to 800,000 tons, which is expected to squeeze 300,000 to 600,000 tons of calcium carbide supply, which will have a certain impact on PVC production. Overall, the growth rate of PVC production in 2022 is expected to be around 3%.

According to Li Min, in 2022, PVC plans to add 2.2 million tons/year of new production capacity, mainly including Inner Mongolia Yihua 50,000 tons/year technical renovation unit, Qingdao Bay 150,000 tons/year, Dezhou Shihua 200,000 tons/year, Shandong Xinfa 400,000 tons/year, Julong Chemical 400,000 tons/year, Guangxi Huayi 400,000 tons/year, Shaanxi Jintai 600,000 tons/year new equipment. But the actual or only about 1 million tons/year of new production capacity will be released. "Because the supply side is disturbed by various factors, the operating rate of new PVC plants will not increase significantly, and the operating rate of existing plants will also be limited. Therefore, it is expected that the overall supply of PVC will increase in 2022, but the increase is relatively small. "Li Min analyzed.

Demand is gradually improving

60% of the domestic PVC is used in the real estate field, and 40% of the demand comes from the consumer side. Affected by the epidemic in 2021, domestic consumption is generally weak. In 2022, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will be relatively large, and the real estate industry will inevitably be affected to some extent. But with the loosening of domestic marginal policies, market confidence will be boosted.

"As far as new housing starts, it is expected to continue to show negative growth in 2022. The main reason is the negative growth of land acquisition area and limited land for real estate development; and the Evergrande incident has also dampened consumers' confidence in buying off-plan houses. The new housing construction in 2022 will also cause a drag. At the same time, under the background of housing and not speculation, it is expected that the sales price of commercial housing may continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2022. However, with the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the real estate in the second half of the year may be better than the first half of the year. ." Yang Xiao said.

From the perspective of PVC consumption, the total retail sales showed a low growth rate. "Until the epidemic situation does not fundamentally improve, domestic PVC consumption may continue to maintain a low growth rate." Yang Xiao analyzed that in general, the PVC market in 2022 will not be as strong as in 2021, but the horizontal comparison is still in the chemical products. strong variety.

PVC: Market Confidence Boosted, Demand Gradually Improved

Main Products

Related News

About Company

Quick Links

Product Category

Our New Letter